Abstract: Based on the panel data of provincial rice production in China from 1985 to 2011, the trend of Chinese provincial grain structure variation and the comparative advantage of rice areas was analyzed by the index of production concentration degree and comparative advantage. The results showed that rice production concentration degree in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was about 48% since 1985. And the degree in the southeast coast fell from 27.21% in 1985 to 17.36% in 2011, while the degree of northeastern area was raised from 3.16% in 1985 to 15.87% in 2011. Comparative advantage analysis showed that the comparative advantage in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and southeast coast areas were significant, but northeastern area was not. The three rice production areas should make the best of their own producing advantage to balance our nation’s rice supply and demand, thus ensuring our food security.

Key words: rice distribution, rice production concentration degree, comparative advantage

摘要： 基于1985-2011年中国各省份水稻生产情况的面板数据，运用水稻生产集中度和比较优势指标，分析我国水稻生产区域变化以及水稻主产区比较优势情况。结果表明，自1985年以来，长江中下游地区的水稻生产集中度在48.00%左右，东南沿海地区水稻生产集中度从1985年的27.21%下降到2011年的17.36%，而东北三省水稻生产集中度则由1985年的3.16%上升到2011年的15.87%。比较优势分析结果表明，长江中下游地区和东南沿海地区水稻生产比较优势显著，东北地区比较优势低于全国平均水平。上述三大稻区应利用各自的生产优势，保障全国的水稻供给和需求均衡，从而确保我国的水稻生产以及粮食安全。

关键词: 水稻布局, 生产集中度, 比较优势